Growth downgraded in Spring Forecast 2026

Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast this afternoon, which had been overshadowed before it even started by events in the Middle East.

 As expected, the Spring Forecast (rather than Spring Statement as it has been referred to in previous years) did not include any fiscal changes, with Reeves previously committing to only holding one fiscal event each year, in the Autumn Budget.

 By way of updates, Reeves announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had ‘adjusted the profile of GDP’ resulting in it downgrading its UK Growth projection for 2026 from 1.4% (as forecast in November 2025) to 1.1%, but the OBR increased its forecasts for 2027 (1.5% to 1.6%) and 2028 (again 1.5% to 1.6%).  Reeves also heralded the interest rate cuts seen in recent months, but events in the Middle East have significantly reduced the chance of a further cut in March, given the inflationary oil and gas price rises seen since the weekend.

 Therefore, the most important upcoming tax changes are those we already knew about, specifically:

• A 2% increase in dividend tax taking effect on 6 April 2026.
• VCT tax relief being cut from 30% to 20% on 6 April 2026.
• Business and Agricultural Relief limited to £2.5m per individual, with effect from 6 April 2026 – this importantly increased from the previously proposed £1m and can be passed between spouses if not used on first death.
• A 2% increase in savings and property taxes taking effect on 6 April 2027.
• A cap in Cash ISA contributions of £12,000 for under 65s with effect from 6 April 2027.
• Pensions forming part of estates for inheritance tax purposes from 6 April 2027.
• A Mansion Tax being introduced in April 2028.
• Salary Sacrifice pension contributions benefiting from National Insurance Contribution savings limited to £2,000 with effect from 6 April 2029.
• Income Tax thresholds frozen until April 2031.

If you would like to discuss the impact of the above on your personal financial situation, why not get in touch for a free initial conversation to see how we can help.

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This article is intended for general information only, it does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate estate planning or tax advice.