Inflation drops to 2.8%... but can it last?

The rate of inflation in the UK has dropped more than anticipated to 2.8% in the year to April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is a notable drop from the 3.3% figure in the year to March.  

Inflation continued to ease even as fuel costs climbed in the wake of the Iran conflict.

Data from the ONS showed petrol averaged 156.8p per litre last month, marking its highest level since November 2022. Diesel prices also jumped by more than 30p in April, pushing the average cost up to 190p per litre, the highest recorded since July 2022.

According to the RAC, petrol prices have continued to rise in May, reaching a new peak of 158.52p per litre on Tuesday.

So why has inflation fallen this time, and will it stick?

According to the ONS, energy costs had fallen thanks to a combination of reduced wholesale prices and the government’s energy bill support measures introduced before the Iran conflict began.

But economists are warning that inflation is likely to be on the rise again soon, potentially hitting around 4% by the end of the year, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive up global prices.

It’s also important to note that it can often take about a year for food supply cost changes to truly be reflected in food prices in the UK, so there are likely to be some price shocks as the economy catches up to the supply chain issues caused by the conflict.  

What is inflation and how is it measured?

Inflation is a measure of how the prices of goods and services have increased over time. Goods are tangible items sold to customers, such as food, while services are tasks performed for the benefit of recipients, such as a haircut. Generally, this increase is measured by considering the cost of things today compared to how much they cost a year ago. The average increase between these prices is demonstrated in the inflation rate.  

Rising inflation directly affects the cost of living. For example, if the price of a bottle of milk is £1, and inflation is increasing by 5%, then your bottle of milk will cost you 5p more. Or, in other words, the spending power of your money has decreased by 5%.  

Ideally, the Government wants to keep inflation low and stable. The general mandated target for the Bank of England is 2%.

Anything significantly above or below this target is thought to cause issues for the economy.  

The cost of living surged in recent years, with inflation peaking at 11% in 2022 - way above the Bank of England's 2% target, partly due to the increase in energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

While the rate has dropped, falling inflation does not mean the goods and services are coming down in price overall, it is just that they are rising at a slower pace.

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This article is intended for general information only, it does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions.