Don’t panic about your financial future, just plan

At the time of writing the Middle East conflict is in full flow. The Straits of Hormuz are effectively closed, and markets are swinging on a daily basis depending upon whether Donald Trump has got out of the left hand side or right hand side of his bed. In short, no one has got the faintest idea what’s happening and by the time this article goes to print, for all I know, the war will be over, and markets would have jumped 10% or, things will have escalated and markets will have fallen 10%.

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“Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring” blurted Corporal Jones, in virtually every episode of the classic BBC comedy, Dad’s Army. Of course, no one was panicking, except for Corporal Jones himself and in this state of blind panic, he was the least likely member of the platoon to be able to resolve the predicament they happened to be in. Panicking, generally, does not lead to sound decision making and certainly not sound financial decisions.

There are plenty of reasons to ‘panic’ in today’s world (financially and otherwise) but as Corporal Jones has shown us, panicking gets you nowhere. Life goes on, and the markets go on too and the worst thing investors can do is convince themselves that “this time it’s different”, that the end is nigh and that we all need to grow carrots and store drinking water in industrial quantities.

In their 2009 book “This Time is Different”, the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff argue that investors always fall for the trap of believing that the game is up and that capitalism is over and investing is no longer viable. There are always people who come out of the woodwork at these moments in time to endorse and bolster the naysayers, not because their views are valid but because the media is prepared to give them airtime. Funnily enough, we do not hear about them much when markets are doing well which, believe it or not, is most of the time.

The peace of mind a financial plan provides

I’m not pretending that the Iran war isn’t a threat to the world economies, far from it, but I wouldn’t like to bet on markets being lower in a year’s time to where they are now. They might be, of course, but if you want to safeguard yourself against inflation, history has taught us that market exposure is the best way to do it. Cash and bonds generally lose in real terms over the long term.  

Markets tend to recover from shocks, whatever they are, and economists call this antifragility, which is the general principle that markets are able to adapt to new conditions. As one source of enterprise closes down, another one opens up and markets always sniff them out, if not immediately, then in time.

It is all well and good to say "don’t panic," but that is much easier to achieve if you actually have a plan in place. The major benefit of having a plan that you regularly revisit is the emotional peace of mind it provides. It moves you away from making knee-jerk reactions based on the morning's headlines and back towards a structured approach. If your personal circumstances change, or the government decides to shift the goalposts on taxes, a quick review of the plan will tell you exactly what needs to be adjusted. By keeping a close eye on your financial roadmap, you can ignore the noise of the markets, knowing that while the path might get a bit bumpy, you are still heading in the right direction.

What we already know

In addition to the “unknowns” (such as the Iran war), we also have the “known” events of future tax changes which are much favoured by the current Labour Government. On going stealth taxes, announced in 2021 as a short-term measure post Covid but now expected to continue until at least 2031. Dividend Tax increase and VCT relief reduction (April 2026); IHT on pensions (April 2027); Mansion Tax (2028) and Salary Sacrifice capping (2029).  

In previous articles I have highlighted the dangers of not investing. Just to remind you, in the 20 years from 1st January 2004, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $66,637 (an annualised growth rate of 9.7%). Had you missed the best 10 days during that 10 years the final sum would have been $29,154 (5.5% annualised growth rate). Take away the best 20 days and it’s $17,494 (2.8%). The message is, of course, stay invested and don’t try to call the markets.

As always, the key is to ensure that you have sufficient liquidity to ride out market volatility. For clients who are nearing retirement, they enter into the ‘decumulation’  - or ‘drawing down’ - phase of their investing life. That is, the scary moment when assets accumulated over decades must now step up to the plate and start delivering actual money to ensure a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan this properly, you become exposed to what is known as “sequence risk”. This represents a significant threat to portfolios if investments are encashed to meet ongoing expenditure during a market downturn. Risk management planning is vital in retirement to ensure you avoid this pitfall. Investment portfolios need to remain invested, to protect them from long term real value erosion, but for decumulators, the higher risk elements must still be viewed as long term and kept invested for many years, if need be, to await a recovery if the downturn is severe. That’s why the cash buffer is important!

In January 2026, markets were looking bullish, economies were generally on the up and most market commentators were positive about the prospects of equity markets continuing to do well. So, what do we do? Keep calm and carry on investing, or, to quote another Dad’s Army character, hold our heads in our hands and say “we’re doomed!”.

But whatever you decide, the best approach is to have your own personal plan in place, review it with your professional advisers and above all, don’t panic!

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This article is intended for general information only, it does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate cash flow planning, estate planning, will writing, tax or trust advice.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until age 55 (57 from April 2028 unless the plan has a protected pension age). The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.